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Election 2012 is fully underway with Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney in full combat mode while President Obama has given his first televised major speech of in this election year. As the incumbent this time around, the President realizes that this election will in effect be a referendum on his administration’s progress in improving the economy from the dismal state it was when he assumed office three years ago.

This will definitely be a hard sell for Team Obama with unemployment actually increasing during this time and stubbornly wedged in the eight-percent range.  The Democrats’ clear strategy this time around is a rehash of its 2010 election year strategy- deflect the focus away from the troubled economy and from promises unkept, and instead put the spotlight on the disagreeable personalities in the GOP. Simply put, draw a distinction between the likeable Obama  and his unlikeable opposition.

It logically follows from this plan to have President Obama come off as optimistic (even Reaganesque!) in an attempt to blunt the mountain of negative advertising and questioning that will be aimed at his presidency.

This plan was on display during Tuesday’s State Of The Union speech when Obama emphatically stated the America had not lost its promise. Interestingly, Gallup has just released a poll that asks the electorate about their feelings on this issue and there seems to be a disconnect between Obama’s speech and the mood of the country. As Gallup stated:

Americans’ assessment of the country is not as positive as Obama’s. Fewer than one in five Americans — 18% – are satisfied with the way things are going in the country generally, while 80% are dissatisfied — far worse than the historical average for this measure.

Article Source: Be Elected Posted By Lou

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Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum currently generate the strongest positive reactions among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents nationwide, with Positive Intensity Scores of +12, and lead the other contenders by a significant margin. In fact, Republicans are about equally likely to view Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich strongly positively or strongly negatively, and are more likely to have strongly negative than strongly positive views of Rick Perry and recently withdrawn candidate Jon Huntsman.

Full Story

Article Source: Gallup.com Posted By Jeffrey M. Jones.

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January indicators mostly align with losing incumbents, but there is still time for improvement

The U.S. political and economic environment at the start of 2012 is a challenging one for President Barack Obama as he seeks re-election. However, Gallup trends suggest that it is too soon to make any firm predictions about the outcome.

The following is a rundown of where some key indicators stand in January, and how trends today compare to years when previous incumbents sought re-election.

Presidential Job Approval

Obama’s job approval rating has averaged 44% in Gallup Daily tracking since the start of January. That is below the approval rating of seven out of eight previous incumbents at a comparable point in their presidencies. It exceeds the ratings of only one — Bill Clinton — in early January 1996.  Full Article

Article Source: Gallup.com Posted By Lydia Saad.

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This election year continues with uncertainty regarding the extent of First Lady Michelle Obama’s participation in her husband’s reelection. Currently, Mrs. Obama continues efforts with her Let’s Move Campaign against childhood obesity that has partnered with The President’s Council for Physical Fitness and also partnered with other childhood obesity initiatives such as The Shape Up America Campaign led by childhood obesity expert Michael Torchia.

In contin­­uing her efforts in this area, Mrs. Obama continues a traditional path of a first lady who focuses more service toward non-political charitable causes and transcending the rough-and-tumble world of politicking.

With this in mind, it is understandable to see how Mrs. Obama may not really want to relinquish her current charitable role in favor of a more political First Lady posture. This impulse was on display this past week in Michelle Obama’s frank interview with CBS’s This Morning where the First Lady revealed that, like any children, hers find their parents ‘not cool’ and that daughter Malia, 13, has her own cell phone in an attempt to live as normally as possible outside the political spotlight. Viewers didn’t have to read to hard between the lines to see that Mrs. Obama was likely projecting her own feelings onto her discussion of her children’s lessening appetite for the rigors and demands of political life.

How this ends up affecting the coming competitive race to save Barack Obama’s presidency will be an interesting sidebar to what will certainly be the most interesting story this year.

Article Source: Beelected.com Posted By Louis.

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Gallup has just published a front-page story that seems to fly in the face of its assertion from earlier in the week comparing the current GOP Presidential nomination race to a typically unpredictable Democrat nominating process:

In recent Republican presidential nomination campaigns, the results of the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primary have often made Republicans nationwide re-evaluate their preferences for the nominee, with the most change occurring in 1980 and 2008. Since 1976 — the first year in the modern nominating era in which there was a competitive Republican contest — the leader after New Hampshire has ultimately won the nomination.

Now does this sound like an assertion of unpredictability in the GOP race? Apparently not. When all is said and done, it serves to look at the Obama campaign’s desperate efforts to frame Mitt Romney in a negative light while mainly ignoring the rest of the GOP field. The Obama campaign clearly has the most vested of interests in the GOP contest and their action reinforce the notion that the GOP nominating process in 2012 will follow a familiar path.
Article Source: Beelected.com Posted By Louis.

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The Gallup pollsters are now stating what has been obvious since summer: the unusual volatility in the GOP Presidential race since last summer is beginning to bring a Democratic Party feel to this contest. As Democrat strategist James Carville has stated repeatedly, the Republicans have long been known as the party that bestows its nomination in a predictable manner that rewards the candidate who has “waited his turn”.

This predictability stems from the pattern in the GOP Presidential nominations of election years past that almost always went to the runner-up candidate from the previous nominating cycle: McCain in ’08, Dole in ’96, GHW Bush in 1988, and Ronald Reagan in 1980. Only George W. Bush in 2000 broke this chain of runners-up elevated to GOP standard-bearer four years later.

Now in 2012, it seems that the previous runner-up Mitt Romney is having trouble cementing his support to make a winning push this early on in the nomination cycle. However, recent polls leading into the Iowa caucus are indicating Romney may indeed snatch a victory away from Ron Paul, Newt Gingrich, and the lately surging Rick Santorum.

As Gallup has stated, the lead in the current GOP race has changed seven times which has led them to liken this contest to the Democrats in 2003 but this parallel seems premature when one considers that the GOP nomination in 2008 seemed likely to deny its previous runner-up John McCain, only to fall into McCain’s hands in predictable fashion.

Article Source: Beelected.com Posted By Louis.

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Herman Cain delivered a studied and thoughtful response to the recent revelations rocking his campaign regarding charges against him of sexual harrassment going back decades.

Mr. Cain’s news conference this afternoon was a stark contrast to his incoherent denials of the past week. It seems that if Herman Cain could still win, he will have to do so by convincing more people outside of his base voter support- the tax-reform minded conservatives who also adhere to the Tea Party platform and also traditional social values.

This remains to be seen, but the answer to the question “Could Herman Cain Still Win? ” and allow him to make history, remains in the balance.

Article Source: BeElected.com Posted By Louis.

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Gallup.com has a new poll published this morning that shows the continued erosion of Barack Obama’s support among crucial swing state voters primarily in the Midwest, old industrial heartland states and Florida.

This latest poll was based on an Oct. 20-27 Gallup Daily tracking in 12 states that will be among the most crucial to winning the 2012 presidential election. The states include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. USA Today and Gallup will report on voters’ preferences in this group of states at least monthly leading up to the 2012 election.

This poll also noted that Republican voters are more likely to express enthusiasm about voting, both nationally and in the swing states. On the national level, 56% of Republican registered voters and 48% of Democratic voters are extremely or very enthusiastic about voting. In the 12 swing states, the Republican advantage in enthusiasm is 59% to 48%.

Article Source: Gallup.com Posted By Jeffrey M. Jones.

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